Aquaman 2 faces bleak early box office predictions, adding to DC’s challenging 2023

Projections for DC Studios’ “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” suggest a potentially challenging outcome for the film, contributing to an overall disappointing year for DC movies in 2023. Following the massive success of the 2018 “Aquaman,” which grossed over $1 billion globally and solidified Jason Momoa’s role as Arthur Curry, the sequel faces high expectations. However, the film’s position as the final project before the DCEU’s transition into the DC Universe has added a layer of complexity, potentially impacting its reception.

Scheduled for release on December 22, 2023, “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” has confronted budgetary concerns. The production initially faced challenges with reshoots, leading to adjustments in James Wan’s directorial vision. Test screenings, whose responses fell short of DC Studios’ expectations, prompted further revisions. These factors contributed to a reduction in the budget for additional filming, indicating a level of uncertainty surrounding the film’s reception.

The financial success of “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” is crucial, given its production budget of $205 million. To break even, the film would need to generate at least double that amount, reaching $410 million. Early box office projections, however, indicate a potential struggle. According to Box Office Pro, the film is expected to achieve a domestic opening weekend in the range of $32 to $42 million, with a total range of $105 to $168 million. These figures, when compared to the substantial budget, raise concerns about the film’s profitability.

Pre-sales tracking for “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” is reportedly 62% behind the 2022 release “Black Adam,” signaling a potential lack of audience enthusiasm leading up to the film’s debut. The anticipation surrounding the film seems diminished, especially considering that the early projections fall below the financial performance of its predecessor.

In the broader context of DC Studios’ 2023 releases, “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” appears to be part of a larger trend of underwhelming box office performances. Earlier releases, such as “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” “The Flash,” and “Blue Beetle,” all struggled to meet financial expectations. These disappointments align with a challenging year for DC movies, raising questions about the factors contributing to this trend.

One significant factor is the announcement by co-CEOs James Gunn and Peter Safran that the DCEU would undergo a reboot into the DC Universe. This revelation, made in November 2022, may have affected the perceived urgency for audiences to engage with the current slate of films, knowing that substantial changes were on the horizon. The impending overhaul, including potential recasting and revamped storylines, might have led viewers to adopt a wait-and-see approach, affecting the box office performances of the 2023 releases.

Furthermore, the phenomenon of “superhero fatigue” might be contributing to the lukewarm reception of DC films. This concept, observed in the Marvel Cinematic Universe as well, suggests that audiences may be growing weary of the superhero genre, leading to diminished enthusiasm and attendance.

The challenges faced by DC Studios in 2023 are compounded by industry-wide disruptions caused by the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and Screen Actors Guild‐American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) strikes. These strikes, which disrupted production schedules and limited promotional activities, likely played a role in the underperformance of DC films. Although the strikes concluded in September and November 2023, their impact lingered, influencing the promotional landscape for “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.”

Despite these challenges, there remains a degree of uncertainty regarding the film’s performance, as the industry adjusts to post-strike conditions, and audiences evaluate their interest in the evolving DC Universe. As Warner Bros. and DC Studios navigate the intricate landscape of superhero cinema, the fate of “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” will be closely watched, offering insights into the resilience of the superhero genre and the ability of established franchises to adapt to changing industry dynamics.

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